How Donald Trump Policies Could Trigger a Recession.
3 min read
MARCH 10,2025
In an economy that thrives on stability and growth, uncertainty is the last thing businesses and consumers need. Yet, former President Donald Trump policies—marked by tariff wars, job cuts, and unpredictable government actions—are creating the perfect storm for a potential recession. The big question is: Who benefits from this chaos? Right now, it appears that one person stands to gain the most—Donald Trump himself.
But for the average American? The impact could be devastating. Let’s break down three keyways Donald Trump Policies are hurting Americans, raising costs, and stifling business innovation.
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1. Rising Costs: How Tariffs Are Impacting Everyday Goods
Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from Canada, Mexico, Japan, and South Korea are causing a surge in prices for everyday consumers. According to The Wall Street Journal, while companies like U.S. Steel, Cleveland Cliffs, and Nucor have benefited with rising stock prices, American manufacturers relying on these metals are facing soaring production costs—costs that will ultimately be passed on to consumers.
This means higher prices on essential goods like cars, beer, homes, appliances, and even oil. The New York Times warns that consumers should prepare for increased costs on metal-based products across multiple industries.
2. Job Cuts and Uncertainty: The Impact of Government Funding Reductions
Donald Trump’s policies to cut funding for the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) have dealt a major blow to American workers. This $44 billion agency, which employs 10,000 people and provides crucial aid to over 100 countries, is now at risk of being shut down. As a result, thousands of workers have been placed on leave, and overseas employees have been forced to relocate back to the U.S.
The ripple effect is already being felt. The Boston Globe reported that Vermont-based contractor Resonance Global, which relied on USAID funding, was forced to lay off 84% of its staff—leaving its president, Steve Schmida, scrambling to keep the company afloat.
And this is just the beginning. With Trump’s goal of cutting 240,000 federal jobs—10% of the total government workforce—many more employees and businesses dependent on government contracts could be next in line for layoffs.
3. Business Leaders Paralyzed by Donald Trump Economic Uncertainty
Since Donald Trump took office, business and consumer confidence has taken a hit. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index showed a decline in February, reflecting growing concerns about the economy. Similarly, small-business optimism, which initially spiked post-election, has since reversed, according to Vistage Worldwide.
The biggest issue? Uncertainty. Business leaders don’t know what’s coming next, making it harder for them to make investment and hiring decisions.
- Ethan Karp, CEO of Cleveland-based Magnet, told The Wall Street Journal, “There is so much turmoil… Even though there is potential long-term benefit to the tariffs in terms of reshoring, the immediate effects are just chaos.”
- Alicia Chong, owner of Blu Monaco, a Pennsylvania-based office supplies retailer, is struggling with higher import costs from China. She asked her Chinese supplier for a discount to offset tariffs but was told she’d need to place a larger order—something she can’t afford to do.
- Wyoming Machine, a small Minnesota metal fabricator, relies on aluminum from Canada. But constant policy flip-flops have made it impossible for co-president Traci Tapani to plan ahead. “The president going back and forth every few days about tariffs is not helpful,” she said.
What’s Next? More Uncertainty, Higher Costs, and a Looming Recession of Donald Trump Policies
Unless there is a significant shift in policy, the economic outlook is grim. Higher tariffs will continue driving up prices, while massive government job cuts will shrink the economy. The Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates to combat inflation, making borrowing more expensive for businesses and consumers alike.
For the average American, this could mean higher prices, job insecurity, and a tougher financial future. As Trump’s policies push the economy toward a breaking point, the question remains: Can Congress, the courts, and the public stop this economic freefall before it’s too late?
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