Thai Leader at Risk After Cambodia Border Clash

JUNE 27,2025

Thailand’s political landscape is facing fresh turbulence as Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra finds herself at the center of controversy—just ten months into office. A long-standing border dispute with Cambodia has reemerged with deadly consequences and is now threatening to end her short-lived premiership.

The tipping point? A fatal clash at the Thai-Cambodian border in May, where a Cambodian soldier was killed during a fire exchange with Thai troops. The incident reignited nationalist tensions and opened the floodgates of criticism against Paetongtarn, particularly over her perceived softness towards Cambodia.

A Family Legacy Under Fire

Paetongtarn’s handling of the situation has been called into question, especially due to her family’s historical ties with Cambodian political elites. Her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, a former Thai prime minister ousted in a 2006 military coup, maintained a cozy relationship with Hun Sen, Cambodia’s former prime minister and now president of the Senate.

Hun Sen had granted Thaksin political refuge during his 15-year exile, even appointing him as an official advisor. Their enduring friendship came under renewed scrutiny when Hun Sen visited Thaksin in Thailand just days after his parole release in early 2024. Conservatives quickly jumped on this as evidence of undue influence, criticizing Paetongtarn’s government for being “too lenient” with Cambodia.

Then came the political earthquake: a leaked audio recording of a private 17-minute phone call between Paetongtarn and Hun Sen was posted on Hun Sen’s official Facebook page. In the call, she referred to Hun Sen as “uncle” and pledged to “take care of” his concerns in exchange for a peaceful resolution—sparking allegations of backdoor diplomacy.

A Slip That Shook the Government

The fallout was immediate. The recording included Paetongtarn disparaging Lt Gen Boonsin Padklang, a senior Thai army general in charge of the border region—an ill-advised move in a country where the military holds enormous political influence and a history of coups, especially against the Shinawatra family.

As protests erupted and opposition voices called for her resignation, coalition cracks widened. The Bhumjaithai party, her largest partner, withdrew from the ruling coalition on June 18, citing the leaked call as a breach of trust. This left Paetongtarn clinging to a narrow majority, setting off a political domino effect.

On June 20, she made a highly publicized visit to the border area, appearing alongside Lt Gen Boonsin in an attempt to project unity and control. She also issued a public apology, but critics say the damage is already done.

Thai Paetongtarn’s Three Risky Options

Now, Paetongtarn stands at a crossroads, with three potential paths, none without risk:

1. Stay and Fight

Paetongtarn may try to weather the storm, hold her coalition together, and proceed with a cabinet reshuffle, expected by June 27. Her allies hope new ministerial appointments will plug the holes left by Bhumjaithai. But this is a fragile fix.

Internal dissent is brewing—three Democrat MPs threaten to resign if their party continues to support her. The ultra-conservative United Thai Nation (UTN) party, now the coalition’s largest partner, remains unpredictable and could push for her resignation in future power plays.

Legal risks are also mounting. Petitions have been filed at the Constitutional Court and National Anti-Corruption Commission accusing Paetongtarn of ethical misconduct. Impeachment or forced dismissal remains a real possibility.

And looming in the background? The specter of another military coup, which has already toppled both her father and her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra.

2. Resign and Pass the Torch

Should she resign, parliament must choose a new prime minister from Pheu Thai’s original shortlist. With Srettha Thavisin and Paetongtarn out, that leaves Chaikasem Nitisiri—an elder statesman rumored to have health issues—as the only legal candidate.

But with coalition support waning and UTN eyeing the top job, this option risks surrendering control of the government to rival parties or even triggering further political instability.

3. Dissolve Parliament and Call a Snap Election

This may be the boldest—and riskiest—move. With Move Forward’s successor party, the People’s Party, surging in popularity, a snap election could devastate Pheu Thai’s standing. Worse, it might hand power to progressive rivals or even unravel the fragile conservative status quo.

Thai – A Cautionary Tale in Thai Politics

Paetongtarn’s political turmoil reveals how fragile alliances, backchannel diplomacy, and personal ties can become landmines in Thai politics. With her coalition unraveling, legal cases stacking up, and public trust eroding, she may not survive the year in office.

Whether she digs in or bows out, one thing is clear: the Shinawatra dynasty’s future hangs in the balance—and the Thai military remains the ultimate wildcard. NOWTREND

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